Highlights Chart 1Interest Rate Expectations Last week the Federal Reserve made some necessary tweaks to the language in its statement. Namely, with the year-over-year core PCE deflator now up to 1.88%, the Fed was forced to…
Highlights Chart 1Inflation Pressures Mount Spread product underperformed equivalent-duration Treasuries for the second consecutive month in March. But last month's underperformance was different than February's in one…
Highlights Chart 1Inflation Perks Up The Fed has struck a decidedly more upbeat tone in 2018. We noted last week that the Fed staff made upward revisions to its growth forecasts, and then Chairman Jerome Powell testified to…
Highlights Stage 1: The first stage of the bond bear market is being driven by a re-anchoring of inflation expectations. This stage will be complete when both the 10-year and 5-year/5-year forward TIPS breakeven inflation rates reach…
Highlights Spread Product: TIPS breakeven inflation rates are holding firm despite the correction in equity markets. Remain overweight spread product versus Treasuries for now, but be prepared to reduce exposure once long-maturity TIPS…
Highlights Chart 1Waiting For A Signal TIPS breakeven inflation rates are fast approaching our end-of-cycle targets (Chart 1). The 10-year and 5-year/5-year rates are currently 2.14% and 2.36% respectively, only slightly below…
Highlights Corporate Bonds & Inflation: The perception of accommodative monetary policy is the sole support for corporate bond performance. But this support will fade as inflationary pressures mount. Our first trigger to reduce…
Highlights Duration: The modest bond-bullish message from our technical indicators does not yet outweigh the bond-bearish forces we expect to prevail on a 6-12 month horizon. Maintain below-benchmark duration. 10-Year Yield: The 10-year…
Highlights Duration: Economic fundamentals indicate that U.S. TIPS breakeven inflation rates have further cyclical upside and this will drive nominal bond yields higher on a 6-12 month horizon. In the near term, however, positioning…