Inflation Protected

The Treasury market is now discounting too slow a pace of Fed tightening, while junk spreads are discounting too rapid an increase in the default rate. This week we examine the risk/reward proposition of temporarily leaning against some prevailing long-run macro trends.

Inflation expectations in the Developed Markets have been adjusting down to the lower trend of actual inflation, although the bulk of this adjustment now appears complete.

A near-term rally in risk assets now appears very likely. But we expect it to be cut short when the Fed eventually reacts to easier financial conditions by returning to a more hawkish policy stance. Investors should maintain a defensive portfolio allocation on a 6-12 month horizon, and remain overweight TIPS versus nominal Treasuries.

The deeply negative momentum in oil prices is fading, setting up the possibility of a counter-trend rebound in global inflation expectations and perhaps even the beaten-up U.S. High-Yield bond market.

With global bond yields converging toward the lower levels of the NIRP countries, it still makes sense to favor markets with higher nominal and real yields and steeper curves, like U.S. Treasuries (especially U.S. TIPS) and U.K. Gilts.

Maintain an above-benchmark portfolio duration since, favoring markets with the highest real yields that stand out in a world where 65% of Developed Market government bonds trade with a negative yield.

Spread product performance has been foreshadowing changes in market rate hike expectations since early last year, and the recent bout of weakness means it is probably time for the Fed to temper its hawkishness.