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Inflation Protected

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Tracking Labor Market Momentum

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
RBA Still Has Its Work Cut Out For It
The Australian CPI release for Q2 came in broadly within expectations. Headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.8%y/y from 3.6%y/y the previous quarter. Some of the narrower measures of inflation — trimmed-mean and weighted median CPI — came in below market…
Daily Insights
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q2/24: Stay The Defensive Course

In this report, we present the quarterly review of our Model Bond Portfolio. Rebounding growth and political instability led to slightly negative portfolio performance in Q2/2024. As global growth starts to moderate, we continue to favor government bonds over credit. Maintain a defensive portfolio stance.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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The Outlook For Inflation

We consider the outlook for CPI inflation over the next 12 months. Our baseline forecast calls for core CPI to hit 2.40% during this timeframe and for headline CPI to fall between 1.74% and 2.49%.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Trump Versus Macro

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
Fed Easing Is A Tailwind For Gold
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, a Fed pivot to rate cuts will provide gold prices with a tailwind. At first blush, the historical evidence is mixed. While gold rallied in the three months leading up to the start of…
Daily Insights
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A Golden Rule For Investing In Australian Inflation-Linked Bonds

In light of this week’s RBA decision to keep policy on hold, we look at the best possible trades in fixed income markets. In our view, inflation-linked bonds, relative to nominals remain a good bet.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
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Looking For Two Cuts This Year

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Favor TIPS Over Gold As Inflation Hedge, But Underweight TIPS vs Nominal
The rally in gold continues and spot prices flirted with their all-time highs last week. Interestingly, these gains have occurred despite the rise in real yields, with which they are usually strongly inversely correlated. Physical demand for gold has…
Daily Insights
US Economic Surprise Index Points To Lower Bond Yields
The US Citi Economic Surprise Index has recently dipped below zero, indicating that US economic data releases have been disappointing expectations. Most notably, the ISM Services PMI started contracting in April against anticipation of a faster pace of…
Daily Insights

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