US bond investors should increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark” on a cyclical (6-12 month) investment horizon. We also recommend exiting Treasury curve flatteners and closing short positions in the…

April’s CPI report was soft enough to justify a Fed pause in June. However, the overall economic data still don’t justify the magnitude of rate cuts priced into the yield curve.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2023.

Today’s releases of the March CPI and March FOMC minutes do not change our view that the Fed will deliver one more 25 basis point rate increase before going on hold.

In this report, we present our performance review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for the Q1/2023, and the outlook and scenario analysis for the next six months. The portfolio slightly…

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2023.

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

It is a big mistake to think that rate cuts or lower bond yields will ease credit conditions. Quite the contrary. After an aggressive tightening of monetary policy, the first rate cuts always coincide with much tighter credit…

Depending on market volatility during the next few trading days, the Fed will either lift rates by 25 bps next week or pause its tightening cycle. Either way, the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak but rate cuts won’t be coming…

Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.