Inflation Protected
We present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2023.
The implications of this morning’s CPI report for Fed policy, Treasuries and TIPS.
In this report, we review our European fixed income strategy recommendations ahead of tomorrow’s critical ECB meeting
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2023.
A global portfolio is likely to return only 5.3% a year over the next decade, compared to 6.7% in the past. Investors either need to lower their return expectations, or take more risk. Our total return methodology remains consistent with previous editions, with changes limited to the Alternatives section.
In this report, we assess the best opportunities in inflation-linked bonds in the major developed economies, based on trends in growth, inflation and the stance of monetary policies in each country. We conclude that the environment is turning more challenging for European inflation-linked bond performance versus nominal government bonds, while the opposite is true in Japan. In the US, US TIPS breakevens have likely peaked, particularly at the short end.
Some thoughts on this morning’s inflation number and implications for Treasury yields and TIPS.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2023.
This week we preview the July FOMC meeting, provide an update on the Fed’s balance sheet and recommend a new TIPS trade.
In this report, we present our performance review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for the Q2/2023, and the outlook and scenario analysis for the next six months. The portfolio return exactly matched that of the benchmark index during the quarter, as modest gains on government bond allocations in the US, UK and core Europe completely offset losses on spread product underweights. Looking ahead, the portfolio is positioned to capitalize on an expected slowing of global growth over the rest of the year through an overweight stance on government bonds versus spread product and above-benchmark duration tilts in the US and core Europe.