The combination of collapsing energy inflation and cooling wage inflation means that euro area core inflation will slump later this year. We discuss the consequences.
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2023.
Since 1970, the track record of US housing recessions as the ‘canary in the coal mine’ for economic recessions is a perfect four out of four: 1974; 1980; 1990; and 2007. If this perfect track record continues, the current US housing…
This week’s report considers the risk that inflation will be stickier than we anticipate, and looks at what a fair value for the 10-year Treasury yield might be in a scenario where the Fed keeps the policy rate on hold for a…
The Fed is betting that the usual non-linearity of unemployment is different this time, but so far, there is nothing to suggest that it is different. We discuss the key signposts to watch out for, plus the implications for interest…
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2023.
In this Strategy Insight, we assess the best and worst opportunities for inflation-linked bonds within the major developed markets. We see a case for underweighting inflation protection in the euro area, while overweighting Japanese…
The Fed will respond to December’s CPI report by downshifting to a 25 bps hike pace next month. We anticipate two more 25 bps hikes before the Fed goes on hold.
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2023.