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Iran

On Risks Markets Are Underpricing
Our clients see geopolitics as the dominant underpriced risk. In this week's poll, we asked what risk markets are most underpricing. A US-Iran ceasefire collapsing drew the largest share of BCA clients at 64%, while a Russia-NATO incident ranked second at…
Daily Insights by Garry Evans
7 hours ago
China Feels The Strait Squeeze
Our China strategists are staying on the sidelines in Chinese equities on an absolute basis, as downside pressure is likely to build in the months ahead. Elevated energy prices are compressing corporate profits just as global demand cools, a combination that…
Daily Insights by Gabriel Gosselin
1 day ago
The Dollar's Missing War Premium

The dollar's muted response to the Iran conflict has led many to question its safe-haven appeal. We argue the opposite – the dollar's defensive properties have returned, while improving growth and rate dynamics should underpin further USD strength in the months ahead.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Artem Sakhbiev
US-Iran Brinkmanship Keeps Oil Risk Skewed Higher
US-Iran talks are again under strain after Monday’s exchange of fire and Israel’s attacks in Lebanon, but the escalation cycle still remains negotiations-driven and at least a short-term deal that restarts shipping this summer remains likely. Oil rose more…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
China Feels The Strait Squeeze

Oil shocks hit economies with a lag. China will feel the delayed pain of surging oil prices, pushing Beijing toward infrastructure spending as its main tool to prop up growth.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
Iran: Ceasefire Extension Would Only Delay The Crunch
A 60-day ceasefire extension would buy the global economy some time, but it would not resolve the underlying supply problem. Oil prices and bond yields fell while equities rallied Tuesday morning after Trump announced…
Daily Insights by Gabriel Gosselin
US-Iran: What To Make Of The Accelerated Negotiations

I spent the last week in London, speaking to a wide array of BCA Research clients. Throughout the early part of the week, well connected friends and sources in the Middle East warned me that a renewed US attack on Iran was imminent (by Friday, May 22, after the market close, bien sûr). Several clients with hefty AUM’s – and thus an impressive geopolitical consulting budget – in London confirmed that the US attack was all but assured. 

GeoMacro Strategy by Marko Papic
On The Long-Term Consequences Of Hormuz
Our clients are split on the Hormuz shock’s long-term consequences. In last week’s poll, we asked what the single biggest long-term consequence would be. BCA clients leaned toward a renewables boom, chosen by 47%, while 24% pointed to inflation entrenchment.…
Daily Insights by Garry Evans
Iran’s Tipping Point?
Our Commodity strategists expect oil prices to move higher as de-escalation hopes fade and Strait of Hormuz supply risks reassert themselves. Recent volatility reflect headline-driven uncertainty, with markets swinging between prospects of an imminent Strait…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Iran’s Tipping Point?

Hopes for an imminent Middle East de-escalation have capped oil prices in recent weeks, but that restraint may soon fade.

Commodity & Energy Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Roukaya Ibrahim

BCA's Iran Conflict Dashboard

Real-time charts on the Hormuz crisis, energy, and macro risk.

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Related Topics

Bahrain Iraq Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates See more Topics