Special Report

Investors should bet against the global rally in risk assets and maintain a defensive positioning until recession risks verifiably abate.

Investors should bet against the global rally in risk assets and maintain a defensive positioning until recession risks verifiably abate.

Special Report

Investors should maintain a conservative and defensive strategy until recession risks are clearly reduced.

Expect the Middle East to create new and unexpected energy supply disruptions on top of the Russian energy shock.

Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while…

Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and…

Executive Summary US Military Constraint: Strait Of Hormuz  A US-Iran deal would make for a notable improvement in the geopolitical backdrop during an otherwise gloomy year. It would remove the risk of a major new oil shock…

Special Report

Executive Summary With the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis materializing, the odds of a major war between the world’s great powers have gone up. Our decision trees suggest the odds are around 20%, or double where they stood from…

Executive Summary Oil Markets Remain Tight  US and Iranian negotiators received an EU proposal for reviving the Iran nuclear deal on Monday, which could return ~ 1mm b/d of oil to markets.  The EU’s embargo of…

Special Report

Executive Summary Iran Reaches Nuclear Breakout  The next geopolitical crisis will stem from the Middle East. The US, Russia, and China are striving for greater influence there and Iran’s nuclear quest is reaching a…