Dear Client, I will be visiting clients next week. Instead of our Weekly Report, we will be sending you a Special Report written by my colleagues Matt Gertken and Ray Park. The report addresses the North Korean situation and argues that…
Highlights The 10-year Italian BTP yield at 4% yield marks a 'line in the sand' at which the current drama could escalate into something considerably worse. The global 6-month credit impulse is now indisputably in a mini-…
Highlights The risk/reward balance for risk assets remains unappealing this month, even though our base-case outlook sees them outperforming cash and bonds over the next 6-12 months. The number of items that could take equity markets…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we review all of the individual trades in our Tactical Overlay portfolio. These are positions that are intended to complement our strategic Model Bond Portfolio, typically with shorter holding periods…
Highlights Last year's broad-based global growth recovery has given way to slower growth and increasing differentiation in growth rates across economies. The U.S. has gone from laggard to leader in the global growth horse race,…
Highlights The dollar rally is set to continue. The dollar tends to perform best when real rates are rising and above r-star. We are entering this environment and raising our DXY target to 98. Moreover, the rest of the world is likely…
Highlights China-U.S. trade détente goes against our alarmist forecast, prompting us to reassess the view; We do not expect the truce to last long, as China has not given the U.S. what we believe the Trump administration wants…
Highlights Global Yields: Relative growth and inflation trends continue to favor the U.S., with divergences widening as non-U.S. is downshifting. This means that the cyclical peak in spreads between U.S. Treasuries and other developed…