Highlights An Italian referendum 'no' is not really revolting. Some people are voting no for no change to the current constitution's vital checks and balances. Lean against any knee-jerk widening of the Italian sovereign…
Highlights De-globalization is accelerating. Europe is holding together, with populism in check. China power consolidation reflects extreme risks. Brexit is more likely, not less, after court ruling. Feature Chart I-1America Has…
The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to…
The median voter moving to the left has spurred paradigm shifts. These new regimes are giving way to transformational leaders who seek change by breaking convention. As they test their constraints and pursue their preferences, a…
A common perception is that the euro has been a failure for Italy. We challenge this perception and explain why it is so important for investors, whether it is wrong or right.
The euro area's NPL problem is unlikely to be solved quickly, constraining bank profitability and the capacity to lend. There are three important repercussions for investors.
In July, the model outperformed both global equities and the S&P 500 in local-currency terms, while underperforming in U.S. dollar terms. For the monthly of August, the model made no changes to overall risk exposure.
The contours of a deal to solve Italy's banking problems are starting to emerge. This is good news for European risk assets. Nevertheless, reviving Italian growth will require even more ECB easing. The appetite for radical measures…