In successful investment analysis "less is more, and usually much more effective."
Signs that the median voter is moving to the left are everywhere. Markets will cheer the move as it means more government spending. In the long term, it depends if policymakers stop at fiscal stimulus. In this Monthly Report, BCA's…
We test three channels of contagion from the Brexit shock: political, banking system, and economic.
A benchmark overall duration stance is still warranted, as central banks will maintain exceptionally accommodative monetary policies to offset potential Brexit-related shocks to confidence.
For the month of June, the model performed in line with both global equities and the S&P 500. For the month of July, the model is increasing its risk exposure.
The Brexit vote will either usher in the complete dissolution of the euro area, or it will prove to be a blessing in disguise. Our bet is the latter, but the next few months are still likely to see heightened political uncertainty…
Government bond yields will remain at depressed levels as investors stay in safe haven assets given the lack of clarity on the next steps in the Brexit saga.
The U.K. vote is a major blow to the cause of European integration. Fears that "others are next" are likely to put upward pressure on peripheral European bond yields, potentially setting the stage for a self-fulfilling debt crisis.…