We have been closely monitoring the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. If the containment of the virus can gather momentum, it could fuel the prospect that other Western countries can also gain control of the epidemic.…
We noted in an Insight earlier this week that the US appears to be following Italy’s COVID-19 experience by roughly two weeks. The chart above makes this point more directly by comparing the US and Italian COVID-…
Dear Client, I will be discussing the economic and financial implications of the pandemic with my colleague Caroline Miller this Friday, March 27 at 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 PM GMT, 1:00 PM CET, 8:00 PM HKT). I hope you will be able to join…
Unsurprisingly, European consumer confidence has declined sharply as a result of lockdown measures required to contain the spread of COVID-19. The GfK survey in Germany fell from 8.3 to 2.7, much worse than the consensus…
Highlights The pandemic has a negative impact on households and has not peaked in the US. But a depression is likely to be averted. Our market-based geopolitical risk indicators point toward a period of rising political turbulence…
Highlights Market Turmoil: The combination of accelerating global cases of COVID-19, a surging US dollar and elevated market volatility has wreaked havoc on financial markets. A sustainable bottom in global risk assets (and,…
We recommend investors closely follow the number of new COVID-19 cases in Italy. At 4,207, as of March 18th, this number remains lower than it was on March 13th. However, new cases have nonetheless trended up over that past…
Highlights China is moving from virus containment to normalization and economic stimulus. The full weight of the virus panic is only now hitting the US public and has not yet peaked. The US – and western democracies in general…
After underperforming through 2019, Spanish equities have become attractive relative to their Italian counterparts for the following reasons: Italy, with 2036 confirmed cases at the time of writing, has become the European…