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Japan

The Yen Carry Trade: A Ticking Time Bomb

The yen carry trade will unwind this year. However, it will be triggered by a drop in “carry asset” prices and a spike in the JPY/USD, rather than by Japan’s improving interest rate differentials. Go long JPY against the USD.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan, Ziyuan Huang
Japanese Election Delivers A Strong Mandate
Japan’s election delivered a decisive mandate for PM Takaichi, reshaping domestic politics. The landslide victory, the LDP’s largest in the post-war era, secures a supermajority in the lower house and reverses losses from the 2024-25 elections. The scale of…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Japan Stimulates, Clashes With China

Ignore Japan's constitutional debate. Rearmament will accelerate anyway. Tech, defense stocks, and industrials will benefit. The threat to JGBs is real but will probably be contained.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma
On The Yen Carry Trade
Our clients see moderate risk from the yen carry trade unwinding. Our latest weekly poll asked how concerned clients are about the yen carry trade over the next six months. A clear majority (64%) of clients saw moderate risk, with high and low risk evenly…
Daily Insights by Garry Evans
The Biggest Macro Call Of 2026-27: Save The Bond Market, Or Save The Stock Market?

The US and Japan are in the same predicament: save the bond market or save the stock market? How this predicament will be resolved is the biggest global macro call of 2026-27. Plus: a new tactical trade is to go short AUD/JPY.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Global Liquidity Still Has Room To Run, But Not For Long
Our Developed Markets ex-US strategists view global liquidity as the decisive macro variable in 2025 and expect it to remain broadly supportive through most of 2026. They therefore stay neutral on equities versus bonds, keep a positive bias toward metals,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
MacroQuant Model Update: Stayin’ Alive

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has upgraded oil and copper to overweight, and is bullish on gold.

Global Investment Strategy, Global Asset Allocation by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li, Ayaan Sohhel
JGBs: Can Volatility Be… A Good Thing?
Japanese yields are heading higher as Japan exits its deflationary regime. Japan is exiting decades of deflation and ultra-accommodative policy, and markets are trying to find their footing. While attention has been focused on policy at the front end of the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
PMIs Signal Stabilization, Not A Growth Breakout
January flash PMIs point to better, though unspectacular, global growth momentum. Developed markets PMIs showed improvement in global growth momentum. PMIs have largely moved sideways through 2025, with manufacturing now recovering after trade uncertainty and…
Daily Insights
BoJ Holds, Signals More Tightening Ahead
Favor JPY on dips and Japanese 2-year/10-year curve flatteners as the BoJ’s tightening path remains underpriced. The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75%, with one dissenting vote in favor of a hike; the same member had dissented ahead of the December…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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