The total return of a carry strategy that is long high-yielding currencies like the Brazilian real and the South African rand and short a funding currency like the Japanese yen is pointing to a recovery in global growth. Carry…
US, European and Japanese small caps have underperformed their large cap counterparts by 22.6%, 15.3% and 10.1% respectively since 2021. They now face conflicting forces. On the one hand, they are extremely beaten down and cheap…
The extraordinary performance of AI companies has pushed US growth stocks to new highs. So far, the MSCI US Growth Index has returned almost 11% since the start of the year, outperforming global stocks by over 3%. No growth index…
The global economy is wobbling precariously between slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation. This is unlikely to end well. Stay cautious, and hedge against both recession and inflation.
In this Insight, we continue our series of reports outlining investment frameworks for inflation-linked bonds in the developed markets, this time focusing on Japan. Our Japanese Inflation-Linked Golden Rule suggests that investors…
The Bank of Japan delivered a historic policy adjustment this week, ending both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control. In this Insight, BCA’s global fixed income and currency strategists discuss the immediate implications…
The Bank of Japan pulled its policy rate out of negative territory with a 10-basis point rate hike on Tuesday that brings the BoJ’s overnight interest rate to a range of 0% to 0.1%, ending over a decade of ultra-accommodate…
Japanese equities and government bonds sold off on Monday and the yen strengthened following the release of the revised Q4 GDP report showing the economy expanded by an annualized 0.4% q/q in Q4 2023 versus earlier estimates of a…
Amid patchy global growth, the US economy remains resilient. However, tight monetary policy will eventually trigger a recession in the US too. The stock market rally has been very narrow. Stay underweight risk assets.
Japan’s CPI inflation dropped from 2.6% to 2.2% y/y in January. However, the sharp slowdown comes on the back of falling energy prices. Meanwhile, the BoJ’s core-core measure of underlying inflation (CPI excluding…