Japan

The unwind of yen carry trades caused violent tremors across the globe. Was this shock a one-off event or the prelude to more troubles?

The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.

We assess the investment implications of the BoJ and Fed meetings, and give our take on the next policy moves. We also assess the impact on asset markets.

Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?

We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength in these currencies. This report delves into these nuances, and suggests a few trade ideas.