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Japan

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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Recession Signs Increase

Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
The World's Growth Engine Is Sputtering
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, absent China’s exponential credit growth, China’s trend growth rate will fall to 4 percent and the world’s trend growth rate will fall to sub-3 percent. This will impede structural rallies in the Chinese stock…
Daily Insights
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Third Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Here Comes The Pain

The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today. We conservatively expect the S&P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Weak Yen Boosted Japan's Exports, Not Global Demand
Japanese exports in JPY increased from 8.3% y/y to 13.5% in May, surpassing expectations of 12.7%. 23.9% and 17.8% y/y growth in exports to the US and China, respectively, led the overall surge. Trade data from Asian export-oriented economies are generally…
Daily Insights
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The Bank Of Japan Joins The Doves

In this insight, we update our thinking on the recent BoJ move in terms of positioning for the yen and JGB yields.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
BoJ Exercises Caution
In a largely expected move, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0-0.1% in June. It maintained the pace of bond buying at JPY 6tr per month but signaled it would lay out a plan to reduce its balance sheet next month, without offering any…
Daily Insights
Compensation Jump Still Leaves Doubt For The BoJ
The Bank of Japan exited negative interest rate policy in March, but subsequent softer-than-expected CPI inflation prints have complicated its path towards tightening. The central bank is widely expected to stay put when it meets this week. Governor Kazuo…
Daily Insights
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What We Learned From Our Clients: Notes From The African Continent

In this report, we gauge the outlook for the dollar given client visits in Africa.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
The Long Yen Trade Will Fire Soon
Our Global Investment strategists highlighted back in November 2022 that structural deflationary forces in Japan were weakening, thus setting the stage for inflation to make a historic comeback in Japan.  About a year later, they highlighted that 2024…
Daily Insights
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Where To Find Value In DM Government Bonds

In this Special Report we assess the absolute and relative attractiveness of developed market government bonds using several fair value models. Longer-term investors who are focused on value should overweight US long-maturity bonds, and favor Spanish, Australian, and potentially UK government bonds within a DM ex-US allocation.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Jonathan LaBerge

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