In this report, we follow up on the upgrade to our US duration stance from last week with a review of our rates views and government bond allocations outside the US. We conclude that while we now find US Treasuries to be more…
In this Month-In-Review report, we go over the latest G10 data releases and rank currencies’ fundamental standing based on our updated macroeconomic model.
Preliminary PMI releases for May continue to show a divergence in activity across DM economies. On the one hand, the pace of expansion of service sector activity accelerated. The US Services PMI rose from 53.6 to 55.1 –…
Recent Asian trade data do not provide any optimism that the global manufacturing slump is nearing its end. South Korean exports collapsed by 16.1% y/y in the first 20 days of May. While the decline was broad-based, sales to…
After a powerful 40% rally from the March 2020 lows, AUD/JPY peaked in September 2022 and has been consolidating those gains in bearish trading pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Although the cross is up 4.5% from the March…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, on a timeframe of two years, investors should shock-proof their portfolios by holding some combination of cheap insurance assets. All shocks end up with both deflationary…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service remains bullish on the yen’s longer-term outlook. The yen is at capitulation levels. Long positions versus the dollar can be established at USD/JPY 138. The team…
Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds.
Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds.
Japanese inflation was perky in March. Headline CPI came in at 3.2%, a slight deceleration from the previous month on a year-on-year basis, but still astronomical by Japanese standards. The real surprise was the acceleration in…