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Japan

What Happens In Japan Once The BoJ Abandons YCC?
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy & Global Fixed Income Strategy services, there are a few shifts that could be immediately expected with an end to the BoJ’s Yield Curve Control (YCC) program. First, the outperformance of stocks…
Daily Insights
The BoJ Under New Leadership: Sayonara To 0% Rates?

The Bank of Japan is about to get new leadership when Kazuo Ueda takes over as governor in April. Will there be a new monetary policy to go along with the new governor? We attempt to answer that question, and what that means for global bond markets and the yen, in this Special Report.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
The End Of A Decade
As expected, the BoJ maintained its dovish policy stance at Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s last monetary policy meeting ahead of his April 8 departure. The post-meeting statement noted that the recovery in economic activity is continuing with employment and…
Daily Insights
The Apex Of EUR/JPY?
The strength in the euro versus the yen since May 2020 can be divided into two phases. During the first phase, from May 2020 to June 2021, the ebbing of the worst of the pandemic and the re-opening of the global economy boosted the pro-cyclical euro relative…
Daily Insights
How Low Can The Japanese Inflation Drop?
Last week’s Tokyo CPI release showed the first signs of modest disinflationary pressures in the Japanese economy. Headline inflation fell from 4.4% to 3.4%, in February. The ex-fresh food component also fell. That said, the core measure, that strips out both…
Daily Insights
Monthly Portfolio Update: This Isn’t Going To End Well

The rebound in growth is pushing up inflation. More aggressive monetary policy is likely to trigger recession over the next 12 months or so. Investors should stay defensive.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Short Euro/Yen
A lot of ink has been spilled of late on the Bank of Japan’s incoming governor and the impact this will have on the central’s bank Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. Japanese inflation has been climbing steadily – national and Tokyo, headline and core measures…
Daily Insights
Russo-Chinese Axis (A GeoRisk Update)

Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have less exposure to geopolitical risk. 

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri, Guy Russell
What Could Replace YCC in Japan?
Since the start of the year, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has bought JPY22 trillion of JGBs, equal to 4% of GDP. Early this week it was forced to conduct further emergency bond buying to keep the yield on 10-yield JGBs below its target of 50 BPs. With new…
Daily Insights
Rising Risk Of A Second Inflation Wave

The risk of a recession in 2023 is being supplanted by the risk of another inflation wave. We will turn more defensive on equities if it continues to look like inflation is making a comeback.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

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