Tokyo CPI data confirms persistent inflation pressures in Japan, keeping the BoJ on a hawkish footing and reinforcing our underweight in JGBs and bullish stance on the yen. July Tokyo CPI came in broadly in line, falling to 2.9% y/y…
July DM flash PMIs point to improving global growth momentum led by services, but manufacturing remains weak and upside is limited, reinforcing our defensive stance. Services PMIs improved in the US, Europe, and Japan, but…
The Upper House loss of Japan’s ruling coalition reflects growing political uncertainty, reinforcing our underweight in JGBs and bullish stance on the yen. The LDP-led ruling coalition has lost control of both houses of…
Euro area and Chinese interest rates must fall much further to prevent monetary policy from becoming ultra-restrictive. But Trump’s attempts to force unwarranted rate cuts from the Fed risks a vicious backlash from the bond…
Disinflation continues to unfold globally, and markets are finally catching up. Inflation expectations have broadly realigned with fundamentals, prompting us to shift our global ILB allocation to neutral. While tariff risks are…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
Upward pressure on Japan’s real bond yield justifies overweighting the yen and underweighting overvalued tech. Plus: two new tactical trades are long JPY/EUR and short platinum.
This week our three screeners identify stocks that are likely to keep delivering deliver earnings surprises in the US, European small caps that are high quality and mean reverting, and Japanese large caps picks across GICS 1 sectors…
Acute geopolitical risks, like a massive oil shock, may be abating. But structural geopolitical risk remains high and could upset a blithe market. Cyclical economic risks are underrated as the US slows down and China continues to…
Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.