Highlights The dollar bounce has further to run. The DXY index could touch 94 before working off oversold conditions. In this environment, yen long positions also provide an attractive hedge. Meanwhile, Japan has stepped back into…
Highlights Global Yields: The fall in global bond yields over the past two weeks represents a corrective pullback from an overly rapid rise in inflation expectations, especially in the US. The underlying reflationary themes that drove…
Yesterday, we highlighted the tactical vulnerability of risk assets, stocks in particular. While the near-term risks to stocks are considerable, the work of investors is made considerably more complex by the fact that equities…
Highlights In the wake of COVID-19, the low-probability, high-impact “Black Swan” event is as relevant as ever. Investors should already expect US terrorist incidents, a fourth Taiwan Strait crisis, and crises involving…
The Bank of Japan’s Tankan Survey indicates that Japanese business sentiment continues to rebound in Q4, surpassing expectations. Current business conditions, as expressed by large manufacturers, rose to -10 from -27,…
Japanese equities have been outperforming since mid-October. We expect this trend to continue into 2021, and therefore favor Japan in a global equity portfolio. On the domestic front, although the third wave of the…
Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead. This report is an edited transcript of our recent…
Taiwanese export orders remained resilient in October, ticking down to 9.1% year-on-year (y/y) from 9.9% y/y. An acceleration in the pace of shipments to the US supported the continued strength in Taiwanese exports, and while…
Highlights Global Duration: US Treasury yields have started to creep higher and the move is likely to continue in the coming months regardless of who wins the White House. Reduce overall global duration exposure to below-benchmark,…