Highlights Abenomics was working – prior to trade war and COVID-19 – and it will remain Japan’s economic policy setting, albeit in a new guise. This is true even if a dark horse candidate wins the Liberal Democratic…
Warren Buffett has deployed capital in Japanese trading companies to much fanfare. He has bought 5% stakes in ITOCHU corp., Marubeni Corp, Mitsui & Co. Ltd, Sumimoto Corp and Mitsubishi Corp. It is questionable that this is a…
Japan’s economy is highly dependent on the health of the global industrial cycle and global trade because a large proportion of Japan’s gross value added and employment still resides in the manufacturing sector.…
Highlights Global Bond Yields: The growing divide between falling negative real bond yields and rising inflation expectations in the US and other major developed economies may be a sign of investors pricing in slower long-run potential…
Japan’s large share of GDP dedicated to manufacturing in general, and automobile production in particular, continues to represent a handicap to this economy for now. In June, Japan’s exports fell 26.2%, despite a…
Highlights Butterflies & Yield Curve Models: With bond market volatility now back to the subdued levels seen prior to the COVID-19 market turbulence earlier in 2020, it is a good time to update our global yield curve valuation…
Highlights Our intermediate-term timing models suggest the US dollar is broadly overvalued. We are maintaining a modest procyclical currency stance (long NOK, GBP and SEK), but also have a portfolio hedge (short USD/JPY). Go…
Highlights The cyclical rally in stocks is not over, but the S&P 500 will churn between 2800 and 3200 this summer. Supportive policy, robust household balance sheets and budding economic growth have put a floor under global…