In this note, we reaffirm our underweight position in JGBs and long yen positions given the BoJ’s meeting overnight.
The BoJ’s decision to keep rates unchanged while announcing a tapering of bond purchases reinforces our underweight stance on JGBs and long bias on the yen. While the decision was broadly neutral, the reduction in asset purchases…
In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions:…
The BoJ will stay hawkish because of sticky inflation and better economic momentum. The May Eco Watchers Survey beat expectations, with current conditions rising to 44.4 and the outlook to 44.8. These levels still signal…
Bursting Japanese inflation warrants a cautious stance on the country’s bonds relative to other DM markets. Tokyo's annual core CPI reached 3.6% in May, the highest print in 44 years (excluding the post-pandemic inflation flare…
Tokyo CPI surprised to the upside in April, signaling that Japanese inflation shows no sign of deceleration and putting the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in a complicated position. Investors should remain maximum underweight in JGBs and…
Japan’s export growth slowed materially in April as shipments to the US, Japan’s largest export destination, fell 1.8% from a year earlier. Japan has yet to make a trade deal with the US. Japanese export growth slowed to 2% from…
This year’s plunge in tech stocks followed by the recent strong countertrend rally is eerily reminiscent of 2000. But the market and economic parallels between 2025 and in 2000 run much deeper. This report lists 10 striking parallels…
The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.
The Bank of Japan’s dovish hold does not contradict BCA’s underweight JGBs and long JPY recommendations. The BoJ left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% for a second meeting, but slashed its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2025 and…