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Japan

Japan Growth Stabilizes, But JGBs Still Exposed on Both Tails
Japan’s Eco Watchers survey suggests growth has troughed, making JGBs vulnerable in both global slowdown and reacceleration scenarios. The July survey showed current conditions ticking up to 45.2 and expectations improving to 47.3. While both remain…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Yen Ready To Rally: Short EUR/JPY Now, USD/JPY Later
Our DM ex. US strategists see the yen entering a multi-year rally and recommend shorting EUR/JPY now while preparing to short USD/JPY as Fed cuts approach. The yen remains deeply undervalued across PPP, unit labor cost, and real trade-weighted metrics, near…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Yen Ready To Rally: Short EUR/JPY Now, USD/JPY Later

The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary
EUR/JPY: BCA’s Emerging Consensus Short
Our strategists recommend shorting EUR/JPY, citing stretched valuations and rising reversal risks. The cross has surged more than 6% since late May, triggering new short positions from the Counterpoint, European Investment Strategy, and Global Investment…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tariff Pressures Aside, Global Inflation Is Capped
Cresting price pressures and weak global growth reinforce our long duration stance, with labor market slack limiting inflation upside across most major economies. Our price pressure indexes show moderate input inflation outside the US and stable global…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tokyo CPI Cements Hawkish BoJ
Tokyo CPI data confirms persistent inflation pressures in Japan, keeping the BoJ on a hawkish footing and reinforcing our underweight in JGBs and bullish stance on the yen. July Tokyo CPI came in broadly in line, falling to 2.9% y/y from 3.1%, with core and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Flash PMIs Improve, But Low Growth And Trade Frictions Persist
July DM flash PMIs point to improving global growth momentum led by services, but manufacturing remains weak and upside is limited, reinforcing our defensive stance. Services PMIs improved in the US, Europe, and Japan, but slowed in the UK. Manufacturing…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Japan’s Political Shift Reinforces Bullish JPY, JGB Underweight
The Upper House loss of Japan’s ruling coalition reflects growing political uncertainty, reinforcing our underweight in JGBs and bullish stance on the yen. The LDP-led ruling coalition has lost control of both houses of parliament for the first time…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Europe And China Need Rate Cuts, The US Doesn’t (Despite Trump’s Pleas)

Euro area and Chinese interest rates must fall much further to prevent monetary policy from becoming ultra-restrictive. But Trump’s attempts to force unwarranted rate cuts from the Fed risks a vicious backlash from the bond vigilantes.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Global Inflation-Linked Bonds: Markets Catching Up

Disinflation continues to unfold globally, and markets are finally catching up. Inflation expectations have broadly realigned with fundamentals, prompting us to shift our global ILB allocation to neutral. While tariff risks are inflating US expectations, pricing in the UK, Japan, and Australia has adjusted sharply. Today’s Strategy Report reviews these developments and updates our country-level ILB positioning.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Deborah Acri

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