Highlights We always strive to develop new analytical methods to complement our focus on judging currencies based on global liquidity conditions and the business cycle. This week, we introduce a ranking method based strictly on…
Highlights Global equity markets have managed to recoup some of last year’s plunge since we upgraded stocks to overweight in late December. The equity rally has been tentative, however, and so far feels more like a technical…
Highlights All of our recent investment recommendations have performed very strongly but have further to go: 1. Own a combination of European banks plus U.S. T-bonds. 2. Overweight EM versus DM. 3. …
The JPY may be cheap, but Japan’s core inflation remains well below the Bank of Japan’s objective, and shows little sign of hitting 2% within a reasonable period (see chart). The recent strength in the yen only re-…
As we have been arguing, the yen should be strong in the current environment, especially against the euro, the Australian dollar and high-yielding EM currencies. When global growth weakens and safe heaven yields fall, the yen…
Highlights The yen’s sharp rally this week reflected a liquidation of carry trades. EUR/JPY has hit our target of 120, it is time to close our longstanding bearish recommendation on this pair. The downside in AUD/JPY is limited…
Highlights Dear Client, This is the final Global Fixed Income Strategy report for 2018. We will return with our first report of the new year on January 8th, 2019. Our entire team wishes you a very happy holiday season and a prosperous…
Highlights So What? Global divergence will persist beyond the near term. Why? China’s stimulus will be disappointing unless things get much worse. U.S.-China trade war will reignite and strategic tensions will continue.…
Highlights Late-cycle pressures will keep pushing bond yields higher. Global growth will remain above trend in 2019, keeping unemployment rates low and preventing central banks from turning dovish. The unwind of crisis-era global…