Highlights The big danger of higher bond yields is to the $380 trillion edifice of global risk-assets, rather than to the global economy per se. Buy a small portfolio of 30-year government bonds, given that higher bond yields are now…
Highlights The greenback normally weakens when the U.S. business cycle matures; 2018 may prove an exception to this rule. Rising U.S. inflation could clash with deteriorating global growth, bringing the monetary divergence narrative…
Highlights Both the euro's undervaluation and the euro area's massive trade surplus constitute disequilibria, which cannot persist in the long term. Hence, the trade-weighted euro will structurally appreciate... ...and euro…
Highlights There is more downside risk ahead as the geopolitical calendar is packed in May; Protectionism remains in play, but markets could also fall on Iran-U.S. tensions, military intervention in Syria, and Russia-West…
Feature Japan's economic experience in the post bubble era is often described as a fate to avoid at all costs. We would like to turn this common notion on its head. Rather than something to avoid, Japan's post bubble…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. When the chartbook was last published in September 2017, the main message was that less accommodative monetary policy was required…
Highlights Recommended Allocation Due to the boost from U.S. fiscal stimulus, we do not expect recession until 2020. Despite some signs that growth is peaking, global economic fundamentals remain robust. Markets have wobbled…
Highlights The 2018 outlook for both economic growth and corporate profits remains constructive for risk assets, although evidence is gathering that global growth is peaking. Some measures of global activity related to capital…
Highlights Bond Strategy: The investment backdrop is broadly evolving the way that we forecasted in our 2018 Outlook, thus we continue to maintain our core strategic recommendations. Maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration and…