Highlights A more bearish backdrop for bonds, led by the U.S.: Faster global growth, with rebounding inflation expectations, will trigger tighter overall global monetary policy. This will be led by Fed rate hikes and, later in 2018,…
Highlights EM/JPY carry trades represent an important "canary in the coal mine" for the global economy that investors need to monitor very closely. They are currently sitting at a key resistance. A breakout above these…
Watching The Warning Signals Recommended Allocation Two of the three indicators we have focused on all year as reliable signals of recession (and, therefore, of the timing for reducing exposure to risk assets) have wobbled in the…
Mr. X is a long-time BCA client who visits our offices toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This year, Mr. X introduced us to his daughter, who we shall identify as Ms. X. She has many years…
Highlights A growing list of indicators is pointing to a potential slowdown to the strong global growth. However, the key deflationary anchors in the global economy - U.S. deleveraging, Europe's crisis, and Chinese excess capacity…