As the U.S. median voter is shifting to the left, redistributive policy could come into play. A strong dollar helps to achieve this goal as it results in a bigger share of labor income in the economy. EM and commodity currencies…
Our Fourth Quarter Strategy Outlook presents the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of the year and beyond.
U.S. bank stocks have been joined at the hip with the expected 12-month change in the Fed funds rate since 2014, based on the notion that a rate hike will boost net interest margins. However, even if the Fed hikes rates, that may do…
The DM Country Model favors the U.S., with Japan and U.K. being the two large underweights. The Sector Model continues to recommend a cyclical tilt.
In September, the model outperformed the S&P 500, while it underperformed global equities in both USD and local-currency terms. For October, the model trimmed its allocation to stocks and boosted its weightings in bonds and cash…
It's hard to make a case for attractive returns from any asset class over the next year. We dial down risk a bit but ending our overweight on junk bonds. Investors should pick up yield where they can but without taking excessive risk…
This month's Special Report looks at the Fed's policy options in the event that there is a negative economic shock while the policy rate is still very depressed. The Fed's "Plan A" is more QE and forward guidance, which are not up to…
In this Weekly Report, we will discuss the outlook for BoJ and U.S. Federal Reserve policies after these meetings and the implications for bond markets in both countries.