With 88 days to go until the U.S. presidential election our client meetings are starting to steer towards "all Trump, all the time." In this report we present evidence that Trump's electability is correlated with the chief global…
While the BoE and the Fed are increasingly committed to letting inflation expectations rise, the BoJ disappointed once again. The dollar and the pound are likely to experience broad weaknesses, while gold, the euro and commodity…
Government bond markets have likely overestimated the degree of policy dovishness that is likely to be delivered by the major central banks in the next few months.
In July, the model outperformed both global equities and the S&P 500 in local-currency terms, while underperforming in U.S. dollar terms. For the monthly of August, the model made no changes to overall risk exposure.
The U.S. and the global economies are improving. A synchronized upswing normally trumps the Fed in determining the path for the dollar. U.S. inflation expectations are likely to rise relative to the rest of the world, weighing on the…
The contours of a deal to solve Italy's banking problems are starting to emerge. This is good news for European risk assets. Nevertheless, reviving Italian growth will require even more ECB easing. The appetite for radical measures…
The recent rally in risk assets is walking a very fine line. If the Fed turns more hawkish, or U.S. growth slows, it could fall over.
This week, we are sending a Special Report written by BCA's Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezin, discussing the end of the 35-year global bond bull market. In addition, we are also sending you a joint U.S. Bond Strategy/Global…