The model has not made significant changes in the country allocation. It continues to keep its largest overweight in the U.S. equities.

There is a risk that global bond yields move higher in the near term, although we prefer to position for that move via cross-market spread, yield curve and inflation trades.

Markets will remain stuck in a trading range, driven by two policy feedback loops: the Fed's and China's.

Special Report

Long-term fundamentals are often poor predictors of the outlook for currencies over the subsequent 12 months. For shorter time horizons, investors should focus on the medium- and short-term currency determinates introduced in this…

Special Report

While it is impossible to time the stock market, even a system whose results are slightly better than a coin-flip can still generate significant alpha. Overweight equities when valuations are favorable, growth is advancing, and…

For the month of May, the model underperformed both global equities and the S&P 500. For the month of June, the model is further paring back its risk exposure.

This month's Special Report reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should…

Special Report

This month's Special Report reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should…

This week, we present five of the more interesting yield curve trades in the Developed Markets for the latter half of 2016.

As the sole shock absorber left in the global economy, FX markets will grow more volatile. The currency market's reaction to the recent Fed minutes exemplifies this phenomenon. Despite its sores and blisters, the U.S. economy wins…