China has fallen into the same "fiscal trap" that ensnarled Japan in the 1990s. Unprofitable investment projects undertaken by SOEs are a necessary evil. The underlying problem is not overinvestment, but an economy that is demand-…
Helicopter money is coming, and once deployed, will prove to be much more successful than most people imagine. Stay long Japanese and German inflation swaps. USD/JPY and EUR/USD are ultimately likely to reach 140 and 0.9,…
The Fed is accentuating bearish dynamics for the dollar over the next three to six months. The upcoming National Congress of the Communist Party of China provides Chinese authorities with an incentive to ramp up stimulus this year.…
The trading action of gold is currently sending a bearish message on the dollar as the price of the precious metal has broken above critical resistance. Though the causation between the dollar and gold usually runs from the former to…
The factors that drove the recent rally - Fed dovishness, China reflation, and a pickup in economic data - are largely over.
Corporate earnings rarely shrink outside of economic contractions, so investors can be forgiven for worrying that we are on the brink of a global recession. Earnings-per-share (EPS) for the MSCI all-country world index are estimated to…
Reflation continues to dictate short-term market moves. Behind this sugar-high, the global economic backdrop remains poor. Commodity currencies can rally for a few more weeks, but once markets refocus on Chinese and EM core…
For the month of April, the model's performance was in line with the S&P 500, but lagged global equities. For May, the model is aggressively paring back its equity risk exposure. Both Europe and Emerging Markets were downgraded,…