Near-term, global yields will remain depressed, but the structural forces suppressing yields should abate and even reverse in the long-run. Slower potential GDP growth - and lower commodity prices - will eventually shift from…

Are the arguments for overweighting European equities still valid? If so, overweighting relative to what?

The recent rebound is not a harbinger of a prolonged recovery in risk assets. The many potential negatives will keep volatility high and trigger further occasional selloffs.

For the month of February, the model underperformed both global and U.S. equities. For March, the model has modestly pared back its equity risk exposure, shifting the allocation into bonds. While Europe remains the largest equity…

Special Report

We are introducing a new set of fair value models for currencies. On a cyclical basis, the dollar is expensive. However, this is not enough of a reason to expect an imminent fall in the greenback. The yen is extremely cheap, and its…

The previous Insight showed that REITs in other parts of the world are outperforming smartly, but lagging in the U.S. We expect a re-convergence. Already a yawning gap has opened between REITs and Treasury yields (shown inverted). That…

The recovery in global risk assets and currencies is a temporary oversold bounce. It is not supported by signs that global growth is on the mend. Consequently, we are not willing to embrace more risk in our currency strategy just yet…

It has been the perfect storm for a sharp appreciation in the Japanese yen. The immediate catalyst for the strengthening yen was the sell-off in global risk assets. However, the fundamental case for a stronger yen had been building…

The Fed backing off from rate hikes is a necessary but not sufficient step toward putting a floor under global risk assets. Equity market breadth measures are still very weak, suggesting the selloff remains broad-based. The bear…