Japanese Yen

Our political forecasting scored wins in 2023 but we failed to capitalize on it adequately in our trade recommendations.

In this report, we go around the globe and survey the near-term outlook for G10 currencies. Our longer-term view on the dollar has been clear, we are sellers. In this report, we review if a tactical sell is also warranted given incoming data and the message from our models.

High interest rates will eventually cause growth to slow. Signs of stress are already starting to show. Stay cautiously positioned.

In this Special Report, we introduce two strategies that use our Central Bank Monitors for global fixed income country allocations and currency trades. We find that using the Monitors in country selection helps improve the performance of a developed markets government bond portfolio. The CBMs can also help substantially minimize the drawdowns on a standard FX carry strategy.

There is a high probability that the global economy will tip into recession in the second half of 2024. A long yen position is an excellent hedge against that risk.

This week's Insight gauges the potential of a dollar breakout or breakdown and suggests a few trade ideas.

In this report, we explore some trading opportunities after a volatile few weeks for FX markets.