In this short weekly report, we review some of our favorite FX trades.

Risk assets would perform well over 12 months only if inflation falls to 2% without triggering a recession. That would be unprecedented. We recommend investors stay defensive.

Special Report

The US stock price / bond yield (SBY) correlation shifted into negative territory over the past year, significantly departing from the positive correlation regime of the past two decades. The inflation regime is the primary macro driver…

Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds.

Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds.

In this week’s review, we look at recent data and its impact on currency markets.

Special Report

In this Special Report, BCA Strategist Ritika Mankar highlights that Japanese savers own foreign assets to the tune of a staggering $6.5 trillion today. As implausible as it may seem today, the rate cycle in Japan will turn later…

High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.