In today’s Strategy Insight, we discuss the monetary policy outlook for the Bank of Japan, following the 25-bps rate hike overnight, and what it means for JGBs and the yen.
Paradoxically, raging optimism on the US economy is making a reacceleration in growth less likely in 2025. The reaction of the bond market has made the Fed rethink its cutting campaign. Markets are also constraining Trump’s agenda.…
This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a…
Over the next few months, Japan’s new government will ease fiscal policy, which will improve domestic demand on the margin. Monetary policy may tighten further in the short run but not too much over the long run. The geopolitical…
The latest Bank of Japan meeting did not alter our high-conviction views of being long the yen and underweight JGBs.
The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.
Our Counterpoint Strategy team believes the equity bull market’s biggest risk is the reversal of the divergence between Japanese and US real yields. Japan’s real policy interest rate differential versus the US…
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
This report looks at the likely path for the dollar and bond yields over the next 6-to-12 months.