In this monthly review, we give our take on where bond yields and the dollar are headed. This is within the lens of revisiting our fundamental indicators.
Over the past few weeks, global equities have been hit by rising scepticism over the bullish AI narrative and increasing concerns over global growth. Stocks should stabilize in the near term, but the medium-term direction is to the…
The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.
We assess the investment implications of the BoJ and Fed meetings, and give our take on the next policy moves. We also assess the impact on asset markets.
The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate by 15 bps from 0.10% to 0.25% on Wednesday, and announced further quantitative tightening, reducing its pace of monthly bond buying from JPY 6 trillion to JPY 3 trillion. While the central…
This report takes a look at bond and FX market technical indicators and calibrates the decision to increase portfolio duration and get long the US dollar.
The yen rallied against most major currencies in July and has climbed close to 3.5% so far this month against the greenback. Resurfacing suspicion of central bank interventions to prop up the currency is one of the factors…
We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength…
Japanese wage growth fell below expectations in May, expanding by 1.9% y/y versus consensus estimates calling for a 2.1% y/y increase. Although this marks an acceleration from April’s 1.6% y/y, that figure was revised down…
In this week's report, we review the impact of political developments, as well as incoming fundamental data, on our positioning.