In this report, we review our trade recommendations based on incoming data in the last month.
In this week’s report, we defend four out-of-consensus claims. Claim #1: Underlying inflation in the US is not reaccelerating. Claim #2: The US labor market is set to weaken abruptly. Claim #3: The S&P 500 will drop to 3700 in…
Central banks are in a dilemma whether to prioritize supporting growth or bringing inflation back to target. This is unlikely to end well. Investors should be defensively positioned.
The Tokyo inflation release for April came in on the soft side on Friday, with every single metric coming in below expectations. Tokyo headline inflation declined from 2.6% y/y to 1.8% y/y, versus expectations of a much more…
USD/JPY has appreciated by over 10% so far in 2024, making the yen the worst performing G10 currency year-to-date. This cross has also surpassed the 150 threshold which historically is the level at which the Bank of Japan begins…
Japan’s national CPI inflation unexpectedly cooled in March, falling to 2.7% y/y versus consensus estimates it would remain at 2.8% y/y. Notably, measures of underlying inflation such as core CPI (ex-fresh food) and “…
In this report, we review what our technical indicators are telling us about the G10 currencies.
The total return of a carry strategy that is long high-yielding currencies like the Brazilian real and the South African rand and short a funding currency like the Japanese yen is pointing to a recovery in global growth. Carry…
In this report, we review our trade recommendations based on incoming data in the last month.
In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.