Labor Market
The June JOLTS report shows a resilient but balanced labor market that is supporting consumption without adding to inflation. Job openings missed estimates, falling to 7.359m from 7.594m; the job openings rate declined to 4.4% from 4.6%. Quits were higher…
The US remains in a growth sweet spot, with a stabilizing labor market supporting consumption without adding to inflation. The July Conference Board Consumer Confidence index missed estimates, falling to 90.8 from 92.2. The decline was driven by consumers’…
The current US macro backdrop does not justify a Fed hike on Wednesday. Along with other tier-1 releases such as the June employment report, CPI, and ISM Manufacturing, consumer confidence has been cooling on easing labor market perceptions. The Middle East…
Most Fed and pundit assessments of inflation expectations are overly narrow, focusing too much on long-term market-based measures. We favor a more qualitative approach that asks whether the inflation outlook is influencing household and business decision making.
The June US CPI report was cooler than expected, reinforcing the case for the Fed to stay on hold in July. Headline CPI contracted 0.4% m/m, the first monthly decline since June 2024 and the most severe since April 2020, cooling the annual rate to 3.5% y/y…
The June Canadian employment report was marginally better than estimates, but the broader labor backdrop remains subdued. Employment rose by 18.2k, slowing from 87.8k in May. Job growth was however concentrated almost entirely in part-time and temporary…
The Goldilocks environment for US profit margins should start to sour next year. Contrary to conventional wisdom, AI could end up eroding margins for both producers and consumers of artificial intelligence.
We are increasingly being asked if higher for longer interest rates could help spur consumption by boosting interest income. This report examines household income and balance sheet data to see if they might.
The June US employment report missed estimates, but still showed a labor market that remains healthy without overheating. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 57k, slowing from a downwardly revised 129k in May. Two-month revisions removed 74k jobs, leaving the 3-month…