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Labor Market

The RBA Delivers A Hawkish First Cut

Overnight, the RBA cut the cash target rate for the first time since 2022, marking the beginning of the policy easing cycle in Australia. However, the RBA will proceed cautiously with further rate cuts, given a tight labor market and still elevated services inflation. This will keep Australian government bond yields elevated versus global yields, benefitting the Australian dollar.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper, Chester Ntonifor
US Retail Sales Disappoint
January US retail sales missed estimates, with the headline number contracting by 0.9% m/m. The decline was broad-based, with spending excluding autos and gas down 0.5%, and the control group also down 0.8%. The retail sales report was impacted by the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Reset The Timer

Some thoughts on this morning’s CPI report and its implications for the Fed and Treasury yields.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Peter Berezin's Thoughts Of The Day: Many Moving Parts

In his latest Thoughts Of The Day, Peter Berezin discusses the different moving parts of the global economy today and the potential impact of Trump's policies.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Small Business Post-Election Euphoria Dissipates
The January NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased more than expected to 102.8 from 105.1. After reaching near all-time highs in the wake of the election, expectations pulled back somewhat as uncertainty took center stage.  The decline was…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Jobs Report Shows Resilient Labor Market
The January US jobs report was solid, reflecting a healthy labor market. Payrolls rose by less than expected at 143k, down from an upwardly-revised 307k in December, leaving the 3-month moving average at 237k. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1% to 4.0%…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Understanding Bessenomics And Its Market Implications
Our Emerging Market strategists published a follow-up piece to their Bessenomics note where they assess the new Treasury Secretary plan’s impact on markets. Lower interest rates are central to Bessenomics. The Trump administration is expected to pressure…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Europe Is Next

Europe is about to become President Trump’s next target. The good news: a US/EU trade war will be short as common ground to achieve a deal exists. The bad news: European assets remain at the mercy of heightened uncertainty. How should investors position themselves in this tricky context?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Talking Down The 10-Year

Some thoughts on this morning's employment data and Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent attempts to talk down the 10-year Treasury yield.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
US Productivity Growth Remains Solid
Preliminary nonfarm labor productivity for Q4 came in line with estimates, decreasing to 1.2% annualized growth from an upwardly-revised 2.3%. Unit labor costs growth was lower than expected, but still jumped to 3.0% from a downwardly revised 0.5% in…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics