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Labor Market

US Consumer Confidence Cools Along With Labor Market
The January Conference Board Consumer Confidence index missed estimates, decreasing to 104.1 from an upwardly-revised 109.5 in December. The decrease was driven by both the present situation and expectations subcomponents. The labor differential, the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Evolving Labor Market Backdrop

We were stopped out of our defensive asset allocation recommendations last Thursday, when the S&P 500 closed above 6,100, but our reading of the labor market tea leaves still supports a bearish fundamental view.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Lacking Conviction

Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
 

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Still On The Tightrope
Our Global Investment strategists believe the US economy is in a more precarious position than investors realize. A slowdown in growth could raise unemployment, while stronger activity may heighten inflation worries. The economic momentum seen in late…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Still On The Tightrope

While the US economy could remain upright on the tightrope for a while longer, it will inevitably fall, leading to a major bear market in stocks. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive. We are not there yet.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
UK: Cooling Employment Will Contain Inflation
November/December UK employment data was mixed. The November unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, in line with expectations. Payrolled employees decreased faster than expected at a 47k pace in December, surpassing the 35k contraction in November. However,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Trump Day One: Threats And Opportunities For Europe

President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
CPI Cools, But Short-Term Risks Remain
The December US CPI came in better than expected. While headline CPI met estimates of 0.4% m/m (2.9% y/y), core surprised to the downside at 0.2% m/m, decelerating to 3.2% y/y from 3.3%. Moderation in core annual inflation was driven by both goods, which are…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Singapore Stocks: How High Can They Go?

Can Singapore stocks continue the bull run into 2025? What does the city-state’s manufacturing and export outlook foretell? Is the Singapore dollar still competitive? See our analysis and investment recommendations in today’s report.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
NFIB: Keep Fading Post-Election Euphoria
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index beat expectations, jumping to 105.1 from 101.7 in November. Most index subcomponents increased, led by measure of expectations, notably for the state of the economy and real sales. After jumping 39 percentage…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics