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Labor Market

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Trump Still Has A Path

Despite the disastrous performance by former President Trump in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, there are still paths for him to come back to power. The economy and global instability could flare up anytime between now and election day, while quirks in the Electoral College ensure that the election will be close. The race is still competitive and policy uncertainty and volatility will be elevated.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
US Small Business Optimism Unexpectedly Declined In August
US small business optimism unexpectedly shed 2.5 points to 91.2 in August, the largest monthly decline since 2022, retracing nearly half of the index’s advance since March. The NFIB Small Business Optimism has oscillated in a tight range since 2022 but…
Daily Insights
UK Wage Growth Decelerates
The BoE embarked on its easing cycle in August, delivering its first 25 bps rate cut. The decision was nowhere near unanimous, with 5 MPCs out of 9 voting in favor of lowering policy rates. Indeed, while headline inflation is sitting right on the central…
Daily Insights
Swedish Spreads Augur Poorly For Eurozone Stocks And Currency
The Swedish economy’s cyclicality and sensitivity to global trade make it a reliable bellwether for global growth. Sweden is facing significant domestic weakness. Employment growth declined by 0.14% y/y in July and households’ debt burden stands at 155% of…
Daily Insights
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Time To Play Defense

Crucial leading indicators of the global and European economies continue to deteriorate. How should investors position their European portfolios to benefit from these trends?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
August Payrolls Presage Higher Unemployment Rate
August nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142 thousand workers, from a downwardly revised 89 thousand and below expectations of 165 thousand. Payroll growth fell to a four-year-low of 116 thousand on a 3-month moving average basis. Notably, pro-cyclical…
Daily Insights
25 Or 50 Bps?
The July Employment Situation report had already cemented the case for a September rate cut and Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole comments dispelled any remaining doubt about an imminent monetary easing cycle. All the labor market data released since then…
Daily Insights
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The Binary US Bond Market

This morning's employment report, particularly the downward revisions to prior months, strengthens our conviction that the US economy is headed for recession.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Anatomy Of A Fall

In this Special Report, we analyze the behavior of economic data leading up to US recessions and discuss some common patterns.

Global Investment Strategy by Miroslav Aradski
ISM Services PMI Expands Modestly For Second Consecutive Month
The ISM services PMI remained mostly stable in August, extending a second consecutive month of modest expansion. The headline index ticked 0.1 point higher to 51.5. However, although new orders continued to expand, new export orders fell a whopping 7.6…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics