Labor Market
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Sweden, which acts as a bellwether for the global economy, will offer early insight into whether our base-case late 2024/early 2025 recession scenario will come to fruition. This Nordic country…
Our negative stance on European growth and assets is not devoid of risks. To gauge whether these risks warrant upgrading our growth outlook, we monitor Sweden closely. So, what is the current message from this Nordic economy?
The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession. Investors should underweight stocks and overweight Treasuries.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down the number of workers on payrolls by 818 thousand over the twelve months period ending March 2024. This largest downward revision since 2009 thus implies that the labor market has been far less resilient than…
We’ve highlighted that continued deterioration in consumer fundamentals will tip the US economy into a recession. Slower compensation growth, tighter lending standards for consumer loans and dwindling excess savings will constrain spending in an economy where…
According to Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (FCI) financial conditions have become considerably more supportive since the fall of 2023. More recently, the index ticked noticeably lower from 99.4 earlier in August to 98.8. US equities have indeed…
Canadian headline CPI decelerated from 2.7% y/y to 2.5% in July, the slowest pace in over 3 years. Notably, core median and trimmed-mean CPI eased further than expected, to 2.4% and 2.7% y/y respectively, 0.1 ppt below anticipations. Lower prices for…
It didn't take long for markets to utterly shrug off the surprise rise in July's unemployment rate. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed higher than it was the day before the July Employment Situation report was released. The Russell 2000 gained 5.2% since…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy and US Bond Strategy services, the drivers of the structural downtrend in real interest rates include: demographic trends (declining fertility rates, longer life expectancy and a rising dependency…
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (LEI) disappointed in July, contracting 0.6% m/m from a 0.2% decline in June, below expectations of -0.4%. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) was flat. Year-on-year contractions in the LEI have…