Labor Market
Markets have recouped some of the losses incurred in the aftermath of the July US Employment Situation report. Was the surprise rise in the unemployment rate a false alarm? Supply-side dynamics alone cannot explain the overall rise in the unemployment…
Housing starts and permits both disappointed in July. New construction contracted 6.8% m/m, from a 1.1% expansion in June. Permits, which typically lead housing starts, declined 4.0% m/m in July from 3.9% growth in the previous month. Concurrently, the NAHB…
The US unemployment rate has clocked in below 4.5% for 33 consecutive months. However, this historically low rate camouflages nascent cracks in the US labor market. Ahead of recessions, firms usually reduce the pace of hiring before they start…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, while the idea that Donald Trump would allow China to build factories in the US does not mesh with the contemporary media narrative, it would fit the historical track record. The last time that the US had…
What do the mixed signals sent by the UK economy mean for the Bank of England, and what are the implications for Gilts and the British pound?
In this report, we gauge the reasons behind the persistently weak Norwegian krone, despite what appears to be benign domestic economic conditions.
Consistent with the risk-on environment that has dominated markets so far this year, high yield bonds have returned 4.9% YTD on a total return basis, outperforming both Treasuries (2.9%) and investment grade (3.1%). Nevertheless, our US Bond strategists…
US producer prices rose by a softer-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, from 0.2% in June. The core measure remained unchanged, the tamest reading in four months. Notably, the index for final demand services fell 0.2% m/m. Our US Bond strategists have…
China missed the chance to change course on economic policy and now it faces rising social instability and western protectionism. This policy approach implies it is not afraid of escalating strategic conflicts in East Asia. Investors should continue to underweight Greater Chinese assets. Any US-China détente will come later rather than sooner.
Market and economic observers have devoted a lot of attention to the Sahm Rule following July’s employment report, and whether or not it has been triggered. BCA’s analysis has highlighted that the overall direction of the labor market is far more important…