Labor Market
Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced.
US job openings grew by 8.18 million in June, exceeding expectations of 8 million, but below May’s 8.23 million openings. The pro-cyclical manufacturing sector accounted for the largest drag, withdrawing 100 thousand openings, or one-sixth of its May total.…
Eurozone GDP surprised to the upside in Q2, growing by 0.3% q/q annualized against expectations of 0.2%. Stronger-than-expected expansions in France (0.3% q/q vs 0.2%) and Spain (0.8% q/q vs 0.5%), as well as steady growth in Italy (0.2% q/q), offset a…
The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence surprised to the upside, rising from 97.8 to 100.3 in July. Respondents’ more optimistic economic outlook drove the overall increase, offsetting a bleaker view of current conditions. Consumers’ assessment of…
The Kansas City Labor Market Conditions Indicator (LMCI) is a broad measure of labor market trends incorporating 24 national labor market variables. It has been on a steady downtrend since 2022, though at 0.6, it remains slightly higher today than it was at…
Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?
US nominal personal income growth and real personal spending decelerated at a faster-than-expected pace in June, both moderating to 0.2% m/m from 0.4% in May. Core PCE – the Fed’s favored inflation gauge – remained unchanged, growing at 2.6% y/y. Notably,…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, it is time to increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark” on a 6-12 month horizon. Since February, our colleagues have been closely tracking three labor market indicators: the…
After this morning’s jobless claims number, we have now seen enough deterioration in our preferred labor market indicators to increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark”.
We assign high odds that the US will tip into a recession by year-end or early 2025. Given it has been the largest driver of global demand in this cycle, a US recession will morph into a global downturn. The procyclical Eurozone economy is particularly…