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Labor Market

Sticky Wages Won't Derail June ECB Cut
Negotiated wages rose 4.7% y/y in Q1, from 4.5% y/y in Q4 in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, preliminary estimates for the Eurozone Composite PMI surprised to the upside in May. Although wage growth is the main driver of services inflation and Euro Area economic…
Daily Insights
DM Manufacturing Activity Improves In May
Preliminary estimates suggest that manufacturing activity generally improved across DM economies in May. Manufacturing PMIs for the US, the Eurozone, Japan and the UK all improved from their April levels. Notably, manufacturing activity started growing…
Daily Insights
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New Zealand: The Rising Case For A Rate Cut

In this Insight, we revisit our "higher for longer" theme for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, in light of the latest central bank meeting. In conclusion, we are inching towards a more dovish RBNZ ahead. Ergo, we recommend some fixed income and currency trades.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Diverging Coincident And Leading Indicators Reflect Delayed Impact From Tight Policy
The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m in April from 0.3% m/m. Deteriorating consumer sentiment and manufacturing new orders led the overall decline. Contractions in the year-on-year changes in this…
Daily Insights
Junk Bonds Are Ignoring The Rise In Unemployment
Credit spreads continue to price in a Goldilocks scenario. US investment grade and high-yield OAS have tightened 41 and 137 bps from their October peaks, resulting in handsome outperformance by both sectors relative to duration-equivalent Treasuries. …
Daily Insights
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Election Campaign Heads Into Summer

The stock market will suffer a setback from the weakening labor market and a rebound in US and global policy uncertainty.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
Another Recession Signal Flashes Red
The 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate has been a reliable US recession indicator. Indeed, there has never been a case in the post-war era when it has increased by more than a third of a percentage point from its cycle low without a recession…
Daily Insights
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Core Inflation Is Back On Track

Our updated views on Treasury yields and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report.

US Bond Strategy
NFIB Survey Points To Softening Demand
On the surface, the Tuesday release of the NFIB Small Business Survey indicated resilience among small businesses. The headline index appreciated to 89.7 from 88.5, upending expectations of a moderation to 88.2.  However, the marginal improvement has not…
Daily Insights
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India: Peaking Politics, Peaking Markets (For Now)

Modi and the BJP are at or near the peak of their political dominance, and their third term will be challenging as they must deal with harder reforms amidst a slowing domestic and global economic environment. In the long run, however, we remain constructive on India’s prospects, as its geopolitical and economic positioning are favorable and improving.

Geopolitical Strategy by Jesse Anak Kuri

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics