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Labor Market

Essentials
NFIB Upside Surprise No Cause For Celebration
The NFIB Small Business Optimism (SBO) index climbed from 90.5 to 91.5 in June, the highest print this year, topping consensus expectations of a softening to 90.2. On the surface, this appears to be good news. Indeed, small businesses are particularly…
2 years ago
Essentials
Japan: A Virtuous Wage-Price Cycle?
Japanese wage growth fell below expectations in May, expanding by 1.9% y/y versus consensus estimates calling for a 2.1% y/y increase. Although this marks an acceleration from April’s 1.6% y/y, that figure was revised down meaningfully from 2.1% y/y.…
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
Macron’s Gambit Paid Off (Sort Of)

At first glance, France has moved to the far left. However, this coalition is fragile, and Macron’s allies still hold the balance of power. What are the assets that will benefit from this new political setup, and those that will not?

Mathieu Savary
2 years ago
Essentials
The US Labor Market Continues Its Slow Cooling
June nonfarm payrolls expanded by 206,000 workers, topping the 190,000 consensus expectation, but downward revisions of 111,000 jobs in April and May pulled the three-month moving average down to 177 thousand, its lowest level since January 2021. The…
2 years ago
Essentials
Canada's Labor Market Weakens Further
The latest release of the Canadian Labour Force Survey indicated further softening of the labor market in the Great White North. The economy experienced a net loss in total employment, shedding 1,400 jobs compared to market expectations of a net creation of…
2 years ago
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FICC
The Fed Can’t Ignore The Labor Market Any Longer

Our labor market indicators have softened meaningfully during the past month but aren’t yet signaling an imminent recession. That said, the Fed can no longer ignore the labor market with the unemployment rate above 4% and rising.

Ryan Swift
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
The Best Possible World For European Stocks?

Does the incipient slowdown in European data herald a soft landing and a goldilocks period for equities? We have our doubts.

Mathieu Savary
2 years ago
Essentials
Does Today’s Low Unemployment Rate Guarantee A Soft Landing?
The US unemployment rate stands at just 4.0% today following 27 consecutive sub-4% readings. Does this low unemployment rate guarantee a soft landing in the US economy? Our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) team’s base case is that the US economy will fall…
2 years ago
Essentials
US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise
The number of job openings in the US surprised to the upside in May, growing from a downwardly revised 7.9 million to 8.1 million. Not only did the growth in job openings beat expectations of a decline, but the May number even grew compared to the pre-revised…
2 years ago
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Portfolio
Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Recession Signs Increase

Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.

Garry Evans
2 years ago

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics