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Labor Market

Canadian Employment Growth Picks Up, But Won’t Prevent BoC Easing
The Canadian economy added 90.4 thousand jobs in April, up from a new loss of 2.2 thousand jobs in March. The April reading beat expectations of a more moderate increase of 20 thousand. The services sector entirely explains April’s employment growth; services…
Daily Insights
A Jobs Recession Without An Economic Recession?
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, it is possible that there will be a jobs recession without an economic recession in the US, as happened in 2001. The Fed is “trying to cool demand and work with what’s happening on the supply side”. So how…
Daily Insights
US Jobless Claims Surprise To The Upside
US initial jobless claims increased from 209 thousand last week to 231 thousand, surpassing expectations of 212 thousand. Moreover, continuing claims also surprised to the upside, increasing from 1.768 million to 1.785 million. Nearly half of the rise in…
Daily Insights
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Bank Of England Inches Toward Rate Cuts

An update to our views on UK rates and currency following today’s Bank of England meeting.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Ryan Swift, Chester Ntonifor
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Four Contentious Claims

In this week’s report, we defend four out-of-consensus claims. Claim #1: Underlying inflation in the US is not reaccelerating. Claim #2: The US labor market is set to weaken abruptly. Claim #3: The S&P 500 will drop to 3700 in 2025. Claim #4: Japan is not in danger of a currency crisis.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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Mexico: Buy On Election Dips

Mexico’s election and the US election pose short-term and potentially medium-term risks to Mexican financial assets. But unless the ruling party wins a double supermajority, we remain structurally overweight Mexico relative to global stocks excluding the United States.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken
Is US Demand Slowing Or Reaching A Steady State?
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, while US economic data clearly show that labor demand has slowed from its peak two years ago, it isn’t yet clear whether this slowing represents a re-normalization to pre-pandemic levels or the start of a…
Daily Insights
The Labor Market Is Cooling
Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.2% m/m in April from 0.3% m/m in March and came in below expectations. On a year-on-year basis, they decelerated from 4.1% to 3.9%, the lowest since June 2021 and below expectations of 4%. Nonfarm payrolls growth…
Daily Insights
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The Trading Range Holds

Some thoughts on this morning’s employment report and recent trends in US economic data.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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US Politics In May And June

Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics