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Labor Market

US Productivity Surprises Negatively
The preliminary nonfarm labor productivity estimate increased by an annualized 0.3% in Q1, below both the previous quarter’s 3.5% rate and expectations of 0.5%. Meanwhile unit labor costs increased by 4.7% annualized in Q1, a sharp acceleration from 0.4% in…
Daily Insights
US Consumer Confidence Plunges On Perceived Labor Market Deterioration
The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence largely disappointed in April. 3.9- and 7.6-point decreases in the Present Situation and Expectations subcomponents, respectively, drove the overall index to a 22-month low of 97.0 in April. This third…
Daily Insights
JOLTS Data Shows Cooling Jobs Market
The details of the JOLTS report showed a labor market that continued to cool in March. The number of US job openings decreased to 8.488 million in March, from 8.813 million in February, and below expectations of 8.680 million. Workers seemed to be less…
Daily Insights
Mixed Messages From Chinese PMIs
The Chinese NBS non-manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, below the previous month’s number of 53 and below expectations of 52.2. Moreover, the NBS manufacturing PMI also decreased to (a better-than-expected) 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March. Meanwhile, the…
Daily Insights
The Fed's Favored Wage Growth Measure Accelerates
The Q1 US Employment Cost Index (ECI) accelerated at a faster-than-expected 1.2% q/q rate, from 0.9% q/q in Q4. On a year-on-year basis, it rose by 4.2% in Q1 and follows a similar annual increase in the previous quarter. The Fed is not expected to cut…
Daily Insights
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Peak Divergence

Investors anticipate a record growth gap between the US and the Eurozone in 2024. Does this skewed expectation create market opportunities?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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The Big Bank Beige Book, April 2024

The latest edition of our Big Bank Beige Book suggests the expansion remains intact, though weakness in C’s private-label credit card portfolio could be a harbinger of distress among lower-income consumers. We remain tactically neutral with a bias to turn defensive once clearer signs of a recession emerge.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Bond Yield Breakout Or Buying Opportunity?

Our latest views on the recent increase in Treasury yields and some key things to watch at next week’s FOMC meeting.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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A Hard Landing Is The Only Way To Solve The UK Inflation Problem

The UK labor market remains far too tight to expect wage growth to slow to levels consistent with the Bank of England inflation target. A true recession with rising unemployment is needed to finally slay the UK inflation beast. 2024 rate cuts are off the table, with the central bank having to keep monetary policy tighter for longer than markets expect and the UK economy now rebounding. We recommend downgrading UK gilts to underweight in global bond portfolios, while also looking for opportunities to buy the British pound on pullbacks versus the euro, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper, Chester Ntonifor
The Dynamics of US New Home Prices
Throughout this cycle, US housing has defied expectations. Overall home prices have never fallen since the pandemic, even as the Fed has conducted its second most aggressive tightening campaign in history. Today, home price growth remains robust, running at…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics