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Labor Market

Quarterly TAA: Automating America

Big Tech and the Trump administration are engineering an industrial boom that favors American hardware over American workers. Economic growth will be robust in the US but the labor market will stay relatively sluggish. Adopt an overweight stance on both equities and fixed income and underweight on cash. Upgrade Canadian equities and downgrade the UK. Upgrade Industrials and downgrade Consumer Staples. Upgrade EM Debt. Downgrade Private Credit.

Global Asset Allocation by Juan Manuel Correa
RBA Holds at 3.6%, Signals Caution On Higher Inflation
The RBA held rates at 3.6% as expected, maintaining caution as inflation could prove stronger than expected. Policy remains slightly restrictive, and at most one additional cut is on the table as the central bank has achieved a soft landing. While the RBA has…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Weak Consumer Confidence Points to Softer Jobs Report
Consumer confidence fell further, reinforcing weakening labor signals and supporting a long duration stance. The September Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 94.2 from 97.8, missing estimates. Both present situation and expectations…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
JOLTS Data Confirm Loosening Labor Market
August JOLTS data confirm a loosening labor market, reinforcing a modestly defensive allocation stance. Job openings ticked up to 7.23m from 7.21m, yet gains came from non-cyclical sectors. Quits fell to 3.09m from 3.17m, pushing the quits rate down to 1.9%…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Consumption Resilient But Fragile As Savings Erode
September consumption and income data beat estimates, showing a resilient US consumer but leaving the outlook fragile. Personal spending rose 0.6% m/m, outpacing income at 0.4%, pushing the saving rate down to 4.6%, its lowest level this year. Adjusted for…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Sweden: Is Easing Really Over?
The Riksbank surprised with a 25 bps cut to 1.75%, signaling no further easing for now but keeping the door open to additional cuts as growth weakens. The move came despite recent inflation prints above the central bank’s forecasts. Leading indicators,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Hotter CPI Validates RBA Caution, ACGBs Still Unattractive
Australian inflation surprised higher in August, validating the RBA’s cautious stance and supporting an underweight on ACGBs. Headline CPI rose to 3.0% y/y from 2.8%, the highest in a year and at the top of the RBA’s 2-3% target range. While the central bank…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
EUR/USD and European Equities Reject Highs
European sentiment indicators weakened again in August and September, reinforcing tactical US outperformance. While the September flash consumer confidence print beat expectations, it is still sluggish. Surveys such as Sentix and ZEW, both leading indicators…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Peter Berezin’s Thought Of The Day: A Puzzling Divergence Between GDP And Employment Growth In The US

US GDP growth appears to have accelerated even as employment growth has faltered. We will make a final decision in early October when we publish our next Strategy Outlook, but most likely, we will cut our 12-month US recession probability to 40%-to-50% from 60% and turn tactically neutral on stocks, while still retaining a modest equity underweight over a 12-month horizon.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
No Risk-Free Path For Fed Policy

Median Fed unemployment rate projections are overly optimistic. The Fed will end up cutting more in 2026 than it currently anticipates.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics