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Labor Market

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Killing Inflation Without Killing The Economy Is Not A Done-Deal

The disinflation to date has been benign because it has come almost entirely from improving supply. But the supply-side tailwind has exhausted, so the last mile of the journey to 2 percent inflation will be the hardest, especially in the US and the UK. We discuss the investment implications. Plus, we highlight an interesting sector pair-trade.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The RBA Isn't Ruling Out Further Tightening
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday. The updated economic forecasts show a downward revision to the growth outlook for this year versus the previous round of projections released in November. The…
Daily Insights
A Blockbuster Jobs Report
The US Employment report came in well above consensus expectations on Friday, delivering a strong positive signal on labor market conditions in January. The 353 thousand increase in nonfarm payroll employment beat expectations of a slowdown to 185 thousand.…
Daily Insights
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Timing The Transition From Soft Landing To Recession

Our thoughts on bond positioning following this morning’s employment data.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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For The Fed, The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

In this Insight, we share our thoughts on yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the Fed’s likely next moves, with implications for US bond strategy.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, US Bond Strategy
NOK And The Inflation Problem For Norway
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service investors should remain long NOK/SEK. The Norges Bank kept policy on hold last week, but the bullish case for the NOK (albeit over the short term) remains in place. There were no major…
Daily Insights
Decelerating ECI Consistent With Easing Price Pressures
The US Employment Cost Index for Q4 delivered a positive signal that the disinflation process is intact. The ECI’s slowdown from 1.1% q/q to 0.9% q/q came in softer than anticipations of 1.0% q/q. This marks the slowest pace of quarterly increase since 2021Q2…
Daily Insights
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The UK And Japan Are At Wage Inflation Extremes. Why?

We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two investments ripe for rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise In December
The December JOLTS survey delivered a positive surprise on Tuesday. Job openings rose from an upwardly revised 8.93 million in November to a three month high of 9.03 million in December, beating expectations of 8.75 million. In addition, the hiring rate…
Daily Insights
Can Cyclicals' Outperformance Persist?
Since the low of 27 October last year, MSCI US has rallied by 19.1% and this rally has been firmly driven by cyclical sectors. Performance-wise Information Technology (IT), Communication Services and Financials and Real Estate have been the top performing…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics