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Labor Market

Can Cyclicals' Outperformance Persist?
Since the low of 27 October last year, MSCI US has rallied by 19.1% and this rally has been firmly driven by cyclical sectors. Performance-wise Information Technology (IT), Communication Services and Financials and Real Estate have been the top performing…
Daily Insights
The Flaws In The Market's "Goldilocks" Narrative
According to BCA Research’s The Bank Credit Analyst service, there are two important flaws in the market’s “Goldilocks” narrative. First, investors are assuming inflation will fully return to target this year because core inflation ex-housing is already at…
Daily Insights
Rising Economic Surprise Index Underscores Risk Of An Early Fed Pivot
With the latest PCE release confirming that the disinflation process is intact (see The Numbers), a key question facing investors is around the timing of the Fed’s pivot to rate cuts. Indeed, the US inflation surprise index has collapsed from its mid-2021…
Daily Insights
Is German Consumer Sentiment Relapsing?
Over the past few months, falling inflation has provided a boost to real wages in the Euro Area which returned to growth in 2023Q3 after 9 consecutive quarters of decline. This dynamic in turn improved the purchasing power of households, boosting their morale…
Daily Insights
A Goldilocks US Economy?
Friday’s US Personal Income and Outlays report for December delivered a positive update on the US economy. On the growth side, the data confirm the signal from the Q4 GDP release that consumer spending continues to power the US economy. The robust 0.5%…
Daily Insights
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As Good As It Gets

Low inflation argues for the Fed to move relatively quickly toward rate cuts. Continued above-trend GDP growth poses a risk to this view, but leading indicators point to slower growth in the coming quarters.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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The Primary Election Is Over

The US primary election is effectively over. The Biden-Trump rematch – our base case since 2022 – is all but set in stone. Only a health issue or freak incident could change that now.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
US Labor Market Indicators Are Pointing To A Hard Landing
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, labor demand can fall even in a full-employment economy. Investors often focus on the unemployment rate as a gauge of how strong the labor market is. The unemployment rate is a valuable…
Daily Insights
A BoC/RBA Preview
Ahead of today’s Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on February 6th, our Global Fixed Income Strategists compared the monetary policy outlooks for both central banks. In Canada, core inflation has already fallen…
Daily Insights
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The Big Bank Beige Book, January 2024

The SIFI banks expressed confidence in their credit outlook for 2024 and expect that credit losses will crest soon, given the reserves they’ve already set aside. Their implicit embrace of the soft-landing narrative suggests to us that the consensus is getting closer to being set up for disappointment. We remain tactically equal weight equities and fixed income but think conditions may soon favor turning defensive.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics