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Labor Market

Empire Fed Beats, But Capex And Hiring Intentions Remain Subdued
The October Empire Manufacturing survey beat estimates, but weak investment and hiring intentions temper its positive signal. The index rose to 10.7 from -8.7, indicating modest activity growth. New orders ticked up, and shipments increased after plunging…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
NFIB Miss Confirms Stalled But Not Collapsing Labor Market
The September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index missed estimates, falling to 98.8 from 100.8. The decrease was driven by expectations, as fewer small businesses expect the economy to improve or real sales to rise. Firms also reported inventories as too high,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The State Of The Interest Rate Cycle

Treasury yields are generally following the pattern of past interest rate cycles, but with a larger term premium keeping the curve steeper than usual.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Fourth Quarter 2025 Strategy Outlook: Still On The Tightrope

In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has entered a structural downtrend, our perspective on the yen, gold and other commodities, and much more.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
RBNZ Delivers Outsized Cut to Spur a Weakening Economy
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the policy rate by 50 basis points to 2.5% and signaled further easing ahead, supporting an overweight stance in New Zealand government bonds and underweight in the NZD.The larger-than-expected move followed the 0.9%…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
Flying Blind

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Shutdown Halts Jobs Data, Alternatives Show A Weak September
With the government shutdown delaying jobs data, alternative indicators point to a marginally weaker US labor market in September. The absence of the monthly employment report and weekly initial claims leaves us reliant on other sources. The September…
Daily Insights
ADP Confirms Slowing Employment Growth
The September ADP report contracted by 32k jobs, missing expectations and extending the trend of weakening employment. August was revised lower to a 3k contraction, marking two consecutive months of decline after also contracting in June. The report was noisy…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Quarterly TAA: Automating America

Big Tech and the Trump administration are engineering an industrial boom that favors American hardware over American workers. Economic growth will be robust in the US but the labor market will stay relatively sluggish. Adopt an overweight stance on both equities and fixed income and underweight on cash. Upgrade Canadian equities and downgrade the UK. Upgrade Industrials and downgrade Consumer Staples. Upgrade EM Debt. Downgrade Private Credit.

Global Asset Allocation by Juan Correa
Weak Consumer Confidence Points to Softer Jobs Report
Consumer confidence fell further, reinforcing weakening labor signals and supporting a long duration stance. The September Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 94.2 from 97.8, missing estimates. Both present situation and expectations…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics