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Labor Market

UK Households See Inflation Easing Over Near Term, Still Skeptical Over Longer Term
The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey shows the public revised down its near-term inflation outlook. Respondents now believe inflation will fall to 3.3% in the year ahead – down from 3.6% in the August survey and the lowest…
Daily Insights
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Key Views: US Politics In 2024

Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken, Junfei Guo, Jesse Anak Kuri
The US Jobs Report, And What Will Trigger The Joshi Rule Recession Indicator
The ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator signals the start of a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate of ‘job losers not on temporary layoff’ rises by 0.20 percent from its low during the previous 12 months. The…
Daily Insights
October JOLTS Supports The Soft Landing Thesis
The number of US job openings fell sharply in October according to the JOLTS survey, from 9.4 million to 8.7 million. At 8.7 million, job openings are still above the 7.1 million average seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Viewed in isolation, this…
Daily Insights
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2024 Key Views: Suspended Animation

We enter 2024 as we were across the last four months of 2023, tactically equal weight across the board until the S&P 500 rally is complete and we gain a better entry point for underweighting equities and overweighting fixed income.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Sketching Out A Near-Term Trading Range For Bond Yields

Treasury yields will sketch out a range between now and Q1 2024, with the upside determined by inflation and the downside determined by labor markets.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
US Consumer Spending Cools In October
As expected, US personal income growth moderated from an upwardly revised 0.4% to 0.2% in October. However, disposable personal income growth experienced a less pronounced slowdown from 0.4% to 0.3% -- particularly in real terms which expanded for the first…
Daily Insights
Stay Long Bond Duration
According to our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service, so far this year, inflation in the US has declined sharply even though employment growth has remained strong. There are many factors that have contributed to this constructive situation, including…
Daily Insights
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OUTLOOK 2024: The End Of The Easy Money Era

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.

The Bank Credit Analyst
Flash US Composite PMI Unchanged In November
The US flash PMI sent a mixed signal about economic activity in November. The Composite index was unchanged at 50.7 – beating expectations of a slight decline to 50.4. The stable reading comes on the back of a deterioration in manufacturing and a slight…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics