Labor Market
According to the Exposure Index compiled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM), active risk managers are increasing their net exposure to equities. The range of responses to the weekly survey include 200% leveraged long,…
As we’ve highlighted in recent Insights, the S&P 500’s year-to-date rally has been concentrated among a few mega cap stocks. In particular, companies that benefit from the AI craze have driven the gains. This dynamic is also reflected in the sector…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the leading indicators of inflation continue to point down, suggesting that the Fed may be able to finally go on hold after hiking one last time in July. Earlier this year, the team predicted…
The latest increase in US weekly jobless claims came in above consensus estimates. Initial jobless claims jumped to 261 thousand in the week ended June 3 – above expectations of a 235 thousand increase. This marks the highest level since October 2021. Rising…
A benign disinflation will support equities over the next few quarters. Stocks will fall next year as a recession begins when investors least expect it.
Eurozone households are becoming less concerned about the near-term outlook for inflation. The results of the latest ECB Consumer Expectations survey show a significant drop in median 12-month inflation expectations from 5.0% in March to 4.1% in April – the…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the earnings contraction is far from over. However, rising productivity, falling costs, or a new restocking cycle could help. Earnings and sales growth beat analyst expectations in Q1-23, yet in real…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, the near-term consensus outlook has grudgingly improved but is still excessively bearish. Economic surprises will continue to boost stocks until a 2023 recession is fully priced out. On May 4th,…
On the surface, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report delivered a strong positive surprise. Establishment survey results reveal that employment increased by 339 thousand in May – above both the upwardly revised 294 thousand gain in April as well as consensus…
The Fed is still on track for a June pause, even after May’s strong nonfarm payroll print.