Note: An update on Peru is available on page 10. Highlights The longer it takes the Colombian government to drastically expand fiscal policy and increase social benefits, the higher the risk that next year’s presidential…
The election of left-wing candidate Pedro Castillo in Peru is all but confirmed. While right-wing presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori is alleging signs of fraud and is demanding a recount of hundreds of thousands of votes, it is unlikely…
Highlights Geopolitical risk is trickling back into financial markets. China’s fiscal-and-credit impulse collapsed again. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is ticking back up after the sharp drop from 2020. All of our…
Highlights US labor-market disappointments notwithstanding, the global recovery being propelled by real GDP growth in the world's major economies is on track to be the strongest in 80 years. This growth will fuel commodity demand,…
Mexico’s midterm elections yielded a positive outcome for Mexican assets over the weekend. Preliminary estimates by the National Electoral Institute indicate that left-wing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s (…
Highlights Political and corporate climate activism will increase the cost of developing the resources required to produce and deliver energy going forward – e.g., oil and gas wells; pipelines; copper mines, and refineries. Over…
Highlights China's high-profile jawboning draws attention to tightness in metals markets, and raises the odds the State Reserve Board (SRB) will release some of its massive copper and aluminum stockpiles in the near future. Over…
Chilean equities collapsed last week on news of the ruling coalition’s surprise underperformance in the election for members of the constitutional convention tasked with rewriting the constitution. President Sebastian…
Highlights Global oil markets will remain balanced this year with OPEC 2.0's production-management strategy geared toward maintaining the level of supply just below demand. This will keep inventories on a downward trajectory,…
Highlights Political volatility and uncertainty have peaked for the time being, which should serve to reduce the equity risk premium in Chile. Chilean equities are cheap. We are upgrading Chilean stocks from underweight to overweight…